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Insight Focus
Corn was pulled higher by soybeans and US–India trade optimism. Both wheat and corn fell on the Euronext, while Trump announced 20 million tonnes of soybean purchases from China. Despite these factors, ample supply limits upside, with Chicago corn expected to trade in a USD 4.3–4.5/bushel range in Q1, and wheat gains dependent on potential winterkill.
It was a positive week for corn in Chicago, lifted by strength in soybeans on expectations of renewed Chinese buying of US beans. In contrast, Euronext prices declined for both wheat and corn. Trump announced 20 million tonnes of soybean purchases by China, while the US–India trade agreement added further support for US agricultural products.
The February WASDE is scheduled for this Tuesday, and there is a possibility the USDA increases its corn export forecast, given corn inspections year to date remain almost 50% above last year. A Bloomberg survey shows the market is expecting lower corn stocks to be published in this month’s WASDE.
However, the big picture continues to be one of ample supply, and even if US corn results in lower ending stocks in this week’s WASDE, gains should be limited. We continue to see the only upside coming from potential winterkill in wheat. We continue to expect corn in Chicago to trade in a USD 4.3 to 4.5/bushel range throughout Q1.
There are no changes to our estimate for Chicago corn to average USD 4.18/bushel during the 2025/26 (September/August) crop, with some upside bias. The average price since September 1 is running at USD 4.28/bushel.
Trade Momentum and Exports Drive Weekly Corn Gains
Corn opened negative last week in Chicago but quickly turned positive on strong export inspections, Trump announcing China’s commitment to buy US beans, and the US–India trade deal, which included India buying US agricultural products. Friday was a negative day, correcting some of the early-week rally, but the week was still positive overall.
Trump announced last Wednesday that he agreed China would buy 20 million tonnes of US beans this year and 25 million tonnes next year. Soybeans rallied and pulled corn and wheat higher, although the reality is that the initial agreement signed last October said China would buy 25 million tonnes in 2026 instead of the 20 million tonnes announced last week.
The US–India trade deal, announced on February 6, includes animal feed made from GMO corn, a category previously restricted, so this change could boost US exports of DDGS.
We also saw strong US corn export sales published by the USDA, well above last year. All grain inspections are nearly 50% higher than last year.
Safrinha corn planting in Brazil is 12% complete versus 5.3% last year and the five-year average of 14%. Corn planting in Argentina is 99% complete, virtually finished, and 87% of the crop is rated good or excellent.
Brazil’s summer corn planting is nearing completion at 95.2%, broadly in line with last year’s 95% and slightly ahead of the five-year average of 93.9%. Summer corn harvesting in Brazil is 8.6% complete versus 10.5% last year and the five-year average of 12.3%. Safrinha corn planting in Brazil is 12% complete, well ahead of last year’s 5.3% but still below the five-year average of 14%. In Argentina, corn planting is virtually finished at 99%, with 87% of the crop is rated good or excellent.
Wheat Declines on Supply Pressure
Wheat had a negative week in both Chicago and Euronext on ample supply, despite fears of winterkill in both the US and the Black Sea region.
Warmer temperatures and dry weather are finally expected in the US. Brazil is expected to continue receiving rains, except in the south where dry weather is anticipated. Argentina is expected to have extreme heat again but with some rains. Rainy weather and some snow is forecasted for Northwest Europe, while the Black Sea region is expected to have freezing temperatures after warmer conditions, which could result in some winterkill.
