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Insight Focus
Corn rallies as disease risk trims yield outlook. Global corn progress was mixed, with Argentina expanding area and harvests advancing in Brazil and Argentina. Wheat fell under harvest pressure, while corn retains upside risk if weather or disease reduce US yields.
There are no changes to our forecast for Chicago corn for the 24/25 crop (September/August), which we expect to average USD 4.55/bushel. This is now likely closer to USD 4.40/bushel with just one week left before the end of the crop year. The average price since September 1 has been USD 4.38/bushel.
Corn was up in both Chicago and Euronext, while wheat declined in both markets. The Pro Farmer crop tour confirmed strong US yields but highlighted risks from disease.
Corn Strengthens on Yield Worries
After a very strong close the previous week, Chicago corn fell during the first half of last week but rallied on Thursday once the Pro Farmer crop tour suggested disease risks.
The 2025 Pro Farmer Crop Tour, held last week in the US, confirmed strong yields across the US corn crop but also suggested risk of disease which could reduce them. They projected corn production at 16.2 billion bushels, compared to the 16.7 billion bushels projected in the latest WASDE projected in the latest WASDE.
Source: USDA
BAGE in Argentina projected 25/26 corn area to grow by 9.6% to 7.8 million ha, the second largest after the record 8.35 million ha planted in 23/24.
US corn conditions were rated 71% good or excellent, down 1 point week on week, compared to 67% last year. Brazil’s safrinha corn harvest is 89.3% harvested vs. 96.4% last year and the five-year average of 88.7%. Argentina’s corn harvest is 95.9% complete vs. 99.2% last year. French corn conditions fell to 62% good or excellent, down three more points week on week and vs. 76% last year. Corn Harvesting has begun in Russia, with just 0.1% completed.
Wheat Falls Under Harvest Pressure
On the wheat side, Chicago and Euronext posted weekly losses due to harvest pressure.
French wheat is fully harvested, totalling 33.1 million tonnes, up 29% year on year. US winter wheat is 94% harvested vs. 96% last year and the five-year average of 95%. US spring wheat is 36% harvested vs. 29% last year and equal to the five-year average (36%). US spring wheat conditions were rated 50% good or excellent, up 1 point week on week but down from 73% last year.
Russian wheat is 60.1% harvested vs. 59.6% last year, with yields up 7.1% year on year. Ukrainian wheat is 98% harvested vs. 100% last year. Sowing of winter wheat in Russia has begun, with 0.2% planted.
On the weather front, the US Midwest is expected to remain warm but with some rainfall, beneficial for corn development. CS Brazil is expected to remain dry, while Argentina should receive heavy rains. Northwestern Europe and the Black Sea region will be warm with some rainfall.
In the Northern Hemisphere, winter wheat harvest is virtually complete, leaving only spring wheat still being collected, which explains the downside pressure of recent weeks. With the harvest nearly over, we should already have seen the market low.
On the corn side, some weather risk still lies ahead. Given that the market has already priced in record US yields, most negative news should already be reflected. Any threat to yields—such as disease—should post some upside risk. However, if weather remains favourable, December futures should come under harvest pressure and trade below USD 4/bushel. The large net spec short leaves the market vulnerable to short-covering rallies.
