Insight Focus
China suspends tariffs and buys US wheat. Markets await the November WASDE on November 14, with expectations of lower corn yields. Any price gains may be short-lived unless yield cuts exceed forecasts, as upside remains limited.
China confirmed the suspension of tariffs with the US and bought its first wheat cargo. Only Euronext corn closed positive on the back of a slow Ukrainian harvest.
We will finally have some fundamental data out of the US with the November WASDE expected this Friday. The market largely expects lower corn yields, so we could see a “buy the rumour, sell the fact” reaction by the end of the week.
Higher prices will occur only if the cut in yields is larger than expected; otherwise, expect a correction. On the supportive side, China may buy more US wheat, corn, and soybeans, and Ukraine’s slow harvesting continues to delay corn availability. Further upside should be limited.
There are no changes to our estimate for Chicago corn to average USD 4.18/bushel during the 2025/26 (September/August) crop year. The average price since September 1 is running at USD 4.20/bushel.
Corn Consolidates on Trade Optimism
Corn in Chicago opened positive last week and traded sideways, consolidating the gains of the previous week on optimism over the China trade deal. However, it fell by the end of the week on profit-taking, finally posting 1% weekly losses. Euronext corn rallied on limited availability due to a very slow harvesting pace in Ukraine.
China announced last week that it would extend the suspension of additional tariffs on US goods for one year, confirming the agreement with the US that had been announced the previous week by the US government. Rumours about China buying US wheat circulated and were eventually confirmed.
The USDA also announced that the next WASDE report will be published on November 14, regardless of whether the government remains closed or not. The focus will be on corn and soybean yields.
Some information has emerged as US government data remains unavailable. Corn harvesting is 85% complete versus 91% last year. French corn conditions are 59% good or excellent, unchanged week-on-week and compared with 76% last year. Harvesting is 90% complete, versus 55% last year and the five-year average of 83%.
Corn harvesting in Russia is 51.2% complete versus 82.5% last year, and in Ukraine 53% complete versus 83% last year. Corn planting in Argentina is 36% complete versus 38.7% last year, with crop conditions rated 79% good or excellent, down from last week but much better than 29% last year. Summer corn planting in Brazil is 42.8% complete versus 42.1% last year and the five-year average of 44.5%.
Wheat Reverses Gains After China Purchase Confirmed
Wheat also rallied at the beginning of last week, both in Chicago and Euronext, on rumours of China buying US wheat cargos. Once the rumour was confirmed, the market sold off on profit-taking, resulting in a negative week. The Chinese purchase was finally confirmed, with apparently two Panamax cargoes of US wheat booked, each about 120,000 tonnes.
US winter wheat is 92% planted versus 87% last year and the five-year average of 86%. Winter wheat planting in France is 79% complete versus 59% last year and the five-year average of 74%. Russian wheat planting is 91.1% complete. Ukrainian winter wheat is 90.2% planted versus 94% last year. Argentinian wheat is 11.6% harvested, while Brazil’s wheat harvest is 59% complete versus 69.3% last year and the five-year average of 60.1%.
Warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected again in the US Corn Belt, with only light rainfall in the north. Brazil’s Centre-South region is expected to receive rains, though irregular, leaving some areas dry. Rainy and stormy weather is forecast for Argentina. Northwestern Europe is expected to see some rain and warmer-than-average temperatures. The Black Sea region is forecast to remain cold and dry.
