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Insight Focus
Corn experienced small losses last week. Markets remain unconvinced by WASDE’s higher acreage, but with harvest underway, we expect pressure to build in the coming weeks. Wheat downside risk looks limited as Northern Hemisphere harvests near completion.
Corn prices experienced small weekly losses last week after gains earlier in the month. Wheat was unchanged after a Friday correction. EU+UK wheat production is at a 10-year high.
The publication of the September WASDE two weeks ago has not convinced the market about the higher corn acreage, while the lower yield was expected. That is why corn is holding well above USD 4/bushel. But harvesting has now started, corn basis has plummeted, and we expect harvest pressure in the coming weeks.
The only short-term support could come from US rains delaying harvest or further reductions in French corn production. Overall, however, downside risk outweighs upside potential. In wheat, downside risk should be over, as harvesting in the Northern Hemisphere is virtually finished.
There are no changes to our estimate for Chicago corn to average USD 4.18/bushel during the 2025/26 (September/August) crop year. The average price since September 1 is running at USD 4.10/bushel.
Corn retreats after Midweek Rally
Corn in Chicago started positive last week, reaching the weekly high of USD 4.312/bushel on Wednesday, before correcting during the second half of the week and finally closing with losses slightly above 1%.
In the EU, Coceral reduced its corn production forecast for EU+UK to 56.7 million tonnes, or 6.5% lower versus its June forecast of 60.6 million tonnes and the 60.2 million tonnes harvested in 2024. The French Ministry of Agriculture forecasts total French corn production at 13.56 million tonnes, down 7.8% year on year and 0.5% below the five-year average.
In Brazil, Conab is forecasting the 2025/26 corn crop at 138.3 million tonnes, down 1% from the 139.7 million tonnes harvested in the recently finished 2024/25 crop. However, it is a much higher level compared with 115.5 million tonnes harvested in 2023/24. In Argentina, the Rosario Grain Exchange forecasts production of the new 2025/26 crop at 61 million tonnes, which would be an all-time high and up 22% versus the previous crop.
The US corn condition was rated 67% good or excellent, down one point week on week, compared with 65% last year. US corn harvesting is 7% complete versus 8% last year. Argentinian corn is now fully harvested. The French corn condition was 62% good or excellent, unchanged week on week, compared with 80% last year. Harvesting is 5% complete versus 0% last year and the five-year average of 6%. Corn harvesting is 2% complete in Ukraine and 7.1% complete in Russia. In Argentina, 2% of corn is planted.
Wheat Trades Sideways in US and EU
On the wheat side, both US and EU wheat traded sideways, closing the week slightly down in Chicago and slightly up in Euronext.
Coceral increased its soft wheat production forecast for EU UK to a 10-year high of 147.4 million tonnes, up 3% from its June estimate and up 17% from the 2024 harvest of 125.6 million tonnes. The French Ministry of Agriculture forecasts total French soft wheat production at 33.29 million tonnes, up 30% year on year and 4.7% above the five-year average.
US spring wheat is 94% harvested versus 91% last year and the five-year average of 94%. US winter wheat is 11% planted versus 13% last year and the five-year average of 13%. Russian wheat is 80.8% harvested, with winter wheat planting 33.5% complete. Ukrainian wheat is 5.2% planted versus 8% last year. In Argentina, wheat condition is 97.1% good or excellent, unchanged week on week.
The US Midwest is expected to be warm again this week but with ample rains. Brazil’s Centre-South is expected to remain dry with isolated showers, while the south will be rainy. Argentina is expected to see rain. Northwestern Europe should remain dry, with rains returning in the second half of the week. The Black Sea region is expected to experience mixed conditions with some rain and warm temperatures.
