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Insight Focus
Corn is flat in Chicago as wheat weakens globally. Australia confirmed another bumper crop, while September futures expiry and Friday’s WASDE report may trigger short-term volatility. With bearish news largely priced in, downside appears limited, and the risk now points to upside unless WASDE surprises with higher output.
Corn was flattish in Chicago but down on the Euronext. Wheat declined across all geographies on ample supplies. Australia confirmed another bumper wheat crop.
This week we can expect the expiry of the September corn and wheat futures in Chicago and of the September wheat future on the Euronext. The September WASDE report is due to be released this Friday. This will bring some volatility to the market, but overall, we believe all bearish news is already priced in, and the market has likely seen its low. The risk should now start to be to the upside unless the WASDE surprises with higher production.
The average price of Chicago corn for the 2024/25 crop (September/August) closed at USD 4.37/bushel. Our estimate for the 2025/26 crop is still under evaluation, but the expectation is for corn prices to average around USD 4/bushel during the Sep’25/Aug’26 period.
Corn Holds Steady After Rally
In Chicago, corn opened last week with a negative day after the rally of the previous Friday and then traded sideways during the rest of the week, closing almost unchanged.
US corn conditions were rated 69% good or excellent, down two points week-on-week and compared with 65% last year. Argentinian corn is 98.5% harvested versus 100% last year. French corn conditions were 62% good or excellent, unchanged week on week and compared with 79% last year. Harvesting has started and is 1% complete.
Corn harvesting in Russia is 1.9% complete, while in Ukraine it is still only 0.1% complete.
Wheat Supply Surges
Wheat traded lower throughout last week, with bigger losses on the Euronext. Northern hemisphere harvesting is in full swing, boosting supply and pushing prices lower across all regions.
US winter wheat is now fully harvested. US spring wheat is 72% harvested versus 67% last year and the five-year average of 71%. Russian wheat is 69.6% harvested versus 65.5% last year. Ukrainian wheat is 98% harvested versus 100% last year. Winter wheat planting in Russia is 9.3% complete.
The German Ministry of Agriculture announced wheat production of 22.45 million tonnes, significantly higher year-on-year.
In Argentina, wheat conditions are 98% good or excellent, down one point week on week.
Abares in Australia increased its wheat production forecast to 33.8 million tonnes for 2025/26, 10% higher than its previous estimate. This would be the second big crop in a row, 22% above the 10-year average.
Source: Abares
The US Midwest is expected to be warm and rainy this week, positive for the corn crop. Central-South Brazil is expected to remain dry, while Argentina is expected to receive rain again. Rain is arriving in Northwestern Europe, while the Black Sea region will be warm with some rainfall.
