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Insight Focus
Corn edged lower despite a weaker dollar last week. Wheat extended gains on weather concerns and short covering. With ample global supply of wheat, corn, and soybeans, weather remains the only meaningful upside risk.
Last week saw mild weekly losses in corn despite a weaker dollar. Wheat was up again on weather concerns and short covering, while the European Commission increased its corn production forecast.
There are no changes to our estimate for Chicago corn to average USD 4.18/bushel during the 2025/26 (September/August) crop, with some upside bias. The average price since September 1 is running at USD 4.27/bushel.
As mentioned, last week was marked by a strong devaluation of the dollar, which is positive for dollar-based commodities. The EUR/USD made a high of 1.208 last Tuesday, and still corn posted small weekly losses. This was not the case for wheat, which had weekly gains above 1% both in Chicago and Euronext, on the back of winter-kill risks in the US and Ukraine.
Source: Investing.com
China is back buying Brazilian soybeans after completing its commitment to buy 12 million tonnes of US soybeans during 2025, which effectively took until the end of January 2026. The question now is whether they will buy the 25 million tonnes it had committed to purchase during 2026.
Weather risk is now the only upside risk we see in the market, as there is ample production across all key producing regions globally for wheat, corn and soybeans. We may see some correction this week if winter kill proves immaterial. We continue to expect Chicago corn to trade in a USD 4.3–4.5/bushel range throughout Q1.
Chicago Corn Trades Sideways as Supply Outlook Remains Ample
Corn in Chicago traded sideways again last week, with a lack of fundamental news, aside from the EC increasing its corn production forecast by 400,000 tonnes, which should be immaterial to the market.
Summer corn planting in Brazil is 93.6% complete versus 93.1% last year and the five-year average of 90.8%. Summer corn harvesting in Brazil is 7.4% complete versus 6.3% last year and the five-year average of 9.3%. Safrinha corn planting in Brazil is 5.9% complete versus 1.4% last year and the five-year average of 7.2%. Corn planting in Argentina is 97.2% complete.
The European Commission increased its corn crop forecast to 58.2 million tonnes, up from 57.8 million tonnes in its previous forecast.
Wheat Rallies as Winter-Kill Risk Expands to the Black Sea
Wheat rallied in both Chicago and Euronext on winter-kill concerns in the US and now Ukraine as well. While freezing temperatures in the US last week were initially expected to last only two to three days, they have persisted longer, with a new cold front coming this week. Ukraine is also expected to see temperatures reach -30°C.
There is talk of some winter kill in parts of Nebraska, Illinois and Missouri, but it will take time before the real impact can be assessed.
Weather forecasts show a second week of heat stress in Argentina, while Brazil is expected to see favourable weather with ample rains in the centre-south again. Very cold weather persists across most US grain regions. Northwestern Europe is also expected to experience low temperatures together with snow and rain. However, the major risk remains in the Black Sea region, with Ukrainian temperatures expected to plummet.
The market is now effectively pricing a risk premium into wheat due to winter-kill concerns, which have expanded to the Black Sea region. Feedback from US farmers on the ground suggests limited concern about any material winter kill. A second week of very hot weather in Argentina could, however, have an impact on corn, which is now virtually fully planted.
