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Insight Focus
Grains prices eased slightly on global harvest pressure. The USDA revised old corn crop production higher, adding to supply sentiment. With the October WASDE cancelled due to the US government shutdown, markets lack fresh guidance as harvest progress continues, keeping corn under pressure.
All grains were slightly down across all regions due to harvest pressure and favourable conditions. The USDA revised the old corn crop production higher.
The October WASDE, scheduled for release on October 9, will not be published due to the US government shutdown. This will leave the market without clear direction amid a lack of fundamental news, as the crop progress report will also not be released. Harvest pressure in corn should continue as progress advances in the US and Europe, while wheat is expected to remain flat to slightly positive.
There are no changes to our estimate for Chicago corn to average USD 4.18/bushel during the 2025/26 (September/August) crop year. The average price since September 1 is running at USD 4.15/bushel.
Chicago Corn Slips on USDA Revision
Corn in Chicago closed the week with losses of less than 1%, after the market sold off on Tuesday following the release of the USDA quarterly stocks report, but recovered all losses by Thursday.
Grains prices eased slightly on global harvest pressure. The USDA revised old corn crop production higher, adding to supply sentiment. With the October WASDE cancelled due to the US government shutdown, markets lack fresh guidance as harvest progress continues, keeping corn under pressure.
Source: USDA
BAGE in Argentina projected corn production for the new 25/26 crop at 58 million tonnes, or +18% year on year, due to a 9.8% increase in planted area.
US corn condition was 66% good or excellent, unchanged week on week and compared to 64% last year. Harvest progress reached 18% completed, versus 20% last year and the five-year average of 19%. French corn condition was 62% good or excellent, unchanged week on week but down from 79% last year. Harvesting there is 24% complete, compared to 2% last year and the five-year average of 24%. Corn harvesting in Russia is 17% complete, while corn planting in Argentina is 77% complete versus 50% last year.
Wheat Prices Drop on Higher US Stocks
On the wheat side, the Tuesday sell-off in US wheat was more expressive due to higher-than-expected stocks as of September 1, which also pressured European wheat lower.
The USDA quarterly grains stocks report as of September 1 showed wheat stocks at 2.12 billion bushels, up 6% year on year and above market expectations of 2.04 billion bushels. The USDA also reported US wheat production in 2025 at 1.985 billion bushels, up from 1.927 billion bushels in the latest WASDE.
Source: USDA
BAGE in Argentina projected wheat production for the new 2025/26 crop at 22 million tonnes, or +18.3% year on year.
US spring wheat is now fully harvested. US winter wheat is 34% planted, compared to 37% last year and the five-year average of 36%. Russian wheat is 92.2% harvested, and winter wheat planting in Russia is 53.4% complete.
The US Corn Belt is expected to remain dry, allowing harvest operations to progress. Brazil’s Centre-South region is forecast to receive rain during the second half of the week, while Argentina is expected to see renewed rainfall. In Europe, northwest areas are expected to experience mixed conditions, with dry weather in France and rain in Germany and the Black Sea region.
