Insight Focus
Corn and wheat rise in Chicago but slip on the Euronext. Argentina corn production has reached a record high. Weather volatility persists during Northern Hemisphere planting, with limited risk to overall production, though lower corn acreage and yields remain a concern. Chicago corn is expected to trade in a USD 4.3–4.6/bushel range during planting season.
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Corn and wheat were up in Chicago on weather worries, while slightly down in Euronext. Argentina corn production is at an all-time high.
Price action last week was mostly driven by weather, which is normal for this time of year as spring is always volatile in terms of weather. However, the discussion is mainly around lower corn acres due to expensive fertiliser, and also lower fertiliser use potentially impacting yields. Good practices dictate that farmers should have locked in most of their inputs before the war, but some did not. The key question is how much area falls under those who have not, and whether this is enough to change the production picture. We will have to wait for the June 30 acreage report to confirm.
Volatile weather continues during the corn planting season in the Northern Hemisphere and we expect ongoing volatility. Overall, we do not see major weather risks threatening production estimates. However, the risks of lower corn acres and lower yields remain. We continue to expect Chicago corn to trade in a USD 4.3 to 4.6/bushel range during the planting season.
There are no changes to our estimate for Chicago corn to average USD 4.18/bushel during the 2025/26 (September/August) crop, with some upside bias to USD 4.25/bushel given possible lower production in the US. The average price since September 1 is running at USD 4.3/bushel.
Corn Gains on Weather Concerns and Strong Sales
Corn in Chicago opened the week on the defensive but traded higher, especially thanks to a Wednesday rally on the back of strong flash sales and expected rainfall potentially impacting planting pace. The market sold off at the end of the week as Brent dragged all commodities lower, but corn and wheat in Chicago still closed the week positive.
Conab in Brazil increased its corn production forecast to 139.6 million tonnes, up from 138.3 million tonnes in its previous forecast. BAGE in Argentina increased its 2025/26 corn production forecast to 61 million tonnes, which is a record, versus 57 million tonnes in its previous estimate and 49 million tonnes produced in 2024/25.
In France, the corn producers’ association AGPM said last week that area could fall by 10% to 15% given the low-price environment and expensive fertiliser and diesel. Also in Germany, the farmers’ association DRV is projecting production to fall by 1.5% this year.
US corn planting is 5% complete, slightly ahead of both last year and the five-year average at 4%. France corn planting is 31% complete, trailing last year’s 36% but well ahead of the five-year average of 19%. Corn planting in Russia has started and is 1.5% complete, significantly behind last year’s pace of 60%. Corn harvesting in Argentina is 24.7% complete.
Wheat Rises as Dryness Threatens Crops
Wheat in Chicago rallied much more than corn as dry areas are expected to worsen crop conditions in the coming weeks.
In Europe, French farmers expect winter wheat area to grow by 2.7% year on year to 4.6 million hectares, which is fairly in line with the five-year average, according to the Ministry of Agriculture.
US winter wheat is rated 34% good or excellent, down one point week on week and well below last year’s 47%. French wheat is 84% good or excellent, unchanged on the week and above last year’s 75%, marking the eighth consecutive week of stable conditions. Ukraine spring wheat planting has reached 69%, ahead of last year’s 62%.
Weather conditions in the US are expected to be mixed across all agricultural areas. Brazil is expected to be dry in the Centre-South region, although some rains are expected in the south, extending further into Argentina where rains are also expected. Northwestern Europe is expected to be mixed, with warmer temperatures across all areas, dry in the west and more rain moving east into the Black Sea region, where cooler and wetter days are expected.
