Insight Focus
Grains rise on weather and Black Sea disruptions. Soybeans and wheat led gains as French conditions worsened and supply concerns intensified, but ample global stocks should weigh on prices once shipments through the Black Sea normalise. While weather volatility may persist, we expect Chicago corn to trade in a USD 4.3–4.5/bushel range throughout Q1.
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All grains were up on weather concerns, Black Sea supply difficulties, and European March futures expiring this week. French wheat conditions worsened, while the US bought Argentinian wheat.
All the market support came from soybeans and wheat. However, as soon as shipments through the Black Sea return to normal, supply remains ample and the market should correct. A key point to watch in wheat is whether the excess rains during January and February will continue to worsen conditions in France and Germany. Right now, the belief is that supply is ample.
We will continue to see some weather volatility, but the market should be capped by strong supply. We continue to expect Chicago corn to trade in a USD 4.3 to 4.5/bushel range throughout Q1.
There are no changes to our estimate for Chicago corn to average USD 4.18/bushel during the 2025/26 (September/August) crop year, with some upside bias. The average price since September 1 is running at USD 4.28/bushel.
Corn Rallies on Black Sea Disruptions, Soybean Strength
Corn opened positive last Monday in Chicago and continued higher through the end of the week, finishing with a Friday rally and closing the week 2.6% higher. Wheat followed suit, and European futures rallied on vessels out of the Black Sea having difficulties sailing.
Soybeans also pulled the whole complex higher on bullishness from Chinese buying and the US biofuels mandate sent for approval.
Summer corn harvesting in Brazil is 20.5% complete vs. 20.9% last year and the five-year average of 22.2%. Safrinha corn planting in Brazil is 46.7% complete vs. 53.6% last year and the five-year average of 53.2%. Harvesting in Argentina has started and is 3.6% complete.
Wheat Closes Week Positive on Worsening French Conditions
Wheat started the week negative in the US and Europe and traded lower through mid-week on ample supply and US prices high enough to trigger at least one vessel of Argentinian wheat. However, both markets rallied by the end of the week, offsetting early losses and closing the week positive.
The end-of-week rally came on the back of worsening conditions in France and vessels apparently having difficulties shipping out of the Black Sea due to weather problems.
French wheat is 84% in good or excellent condition, down from 88% last week and vs. 74% last year. The worsening conditions are due to fields flooded by continuous rains through the end of February.
Warmer-than-normal temperatures and dry weather are expected across Central Europe, with some rain in southern Europe.
Warmer temperatures are also expected in the Black Sea region. The US is expected to see stormy weather with periods of rain and temperature variation. Brazil is expected to be rainy in the Centre-South, with stronger precipitation in the south. Argentina is also expected to receive rain this week.
