Insight Focus
Grains rose again on weather-driven support. Markets remain firmly weather focused as Northern Hemisphere corn planting progresses, with volatility likely to stay elevated in the weeks ahead. While no major weather threat to production is visible yet, risks around lower corn acreage and softer yields remain, and we continue to expect Chicago corn to trade in a USD 4.3–4.6/bushel range during planting season.
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All grains were up again on weather worries potentially delaying corn planting.
Price action was again driven by weather, with risks centred on delays in corn planting in the US and worsening conditions in the wheat crop, including frost risk in the Black Sea region and Russia. The risk of lower corn area due to expensive fertiliser, as well as lower fertiliser use potentially impacting yields, also remains in the market.
In theory, farmers should have bought most of their inputs in the autumn before the war started, so it remains a question mark whether this will have a real impact or not. The June 30 USDA acreage report and the end of French and German planting will provide more clarity on whether there is a material loss of area.
Weather volatility continues during the corn planting season in the northern hemisphere. But overall, we do not see major weather risks threatening production estimates. The risks of lower corn acres and lower yields remain. We continue to expect Chicago corn to trade in a USD 4.3 to 4.6/bushel range during planting season.
There are no changes to our estimate for Chicago corn to average USD 4.18 USD/bushel during the 2025/26 (September/August) crop year, with some upside bias to USD 4.25/bushel given possible lower production in the US. The average price since September 1 is running at USD 4.3/bushel.
Corn Rallies on Weather and Acreage Concerns
Corn in Chicago opened positive right at the start last Monday on expectations of rainy weather potentially impacting corn planting in the US, and it rallied further with confirmation of rains in the Corn Belt, with only Friday being a negative day, most likely on profit-taking.
The rally in Brent and continued worries about lower fertiliser use helped the rally as well.
In Europe, another French farmer group said corn area will fall by about 15% this year as farmers move to less fertiliser-intensive crops or even leave land fallow rather than accept negative margins. This concern also helped the rally in Euronext corn.
US corn planting is 11% complete, in line with last year (11%) and slightly ahead of the five-year average of 9%. France corn planting is 56% complete, ahead of both last year’s 49% and the five-year average of 37%. Corn planting in Russia is 5.7% complete, well behind last year’s pace of 10.6%. Corn planting in Ukraine is 1.7% complete. Corn harvesting in Argentina is 26.5% complete. In Brazil, summer corn harvesting is 59.4% complete, while Safrinha corn planting is virtually finished, with 99.9% of the area planted.
Rows of young corn plants in soil
Wheat Gains on Dryness and Frost Risks
Just like corn, wheat rallied both in Chicago and Euronext on worries that dry areas in the US could impact production and lead to lower crop conditions in the coming weeks. This is mostly in the southwestern plains of the US.
Possible frost in the US and in the Black Sea region is also a risk to wheat at this time of year and helped the rally last week.
US winter wheat is rated 30% good or excellent, down four points week-on-week and well below 45% a year ago. French wheat is rated 83% good or excellent, down one point week on week but still above 74% last year. Ukraine spring wheat planting is 85.2% complete, ahead of last year’s 74.5%. Russia spring wheat planting is 1.5% complete, significantly behind last year’s 12.1%.
Young wheat seedlings growing in soil
On the weather front, Western Europe is expected to get warmer, while cooler temperatures are expected in the East and further into the Black Sea region, with below-normal temperatures that could pose a risk to wheat. US weather is expected to be less stormy than last week, but normal to above-normal rains are expected, along with colder-than-average temperatures. Centre-South Brazil and Argentina will receive rains.
