Insight Focus
Grains fell on crude weakness and a soft WASDE report. As the Northern Hemisphere corn planting season begins, there are risks of lower yields due to expensive fertilisers and ongoing uncertainty around the Iran conflict supporting volatility. Some price recovery is possible if tensions escalate, but under normal weather conditions we expect corn to trade in a USD 4.3–4.6/bushel range during planting season.
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Grains were down over the week, dragged by plummeting crude oil prices and also pressured by a neutral to slightly bearish April WASDE.
It is clear that last week’s price action was largely influenced by the plummeting crude prices, which dragged down most commodities. The April WASDE, while theoretically slightly bearish, was in reality a non-event for corn and somewhat negative for wheat.
We need to see a 2026/27 forecast, which is what matters now that US corn planting has started and the issue of very expensive fertiliser remains unresolved. Corn is fertiliser-intensive, and we could see reduced usage this spring—not only in the US but also in other major growing regions such as Ukraine, Russia and the EU—which would negatively impact yields.
The corn planting season in the Northern Hemisphere is beginning, which, combined with the risk of lower yields due to very expensive fertilisers and the geopolitical backdrop in Iran, is conducive to volatility. We may see some price recovery this week if tensions in Iran escalate. Overall, we expect prices to trade in a USD 4.3 to 4.6/bushel range during the planting season under normal weather conditions.
There are no changes to our estimate for Chicago corn to average USD 4.18/bushel during the 2025/26 (September/August) crop, with some upside bias to USD 4.25/bushel given possible lower production in the US. The average price since September 1 is running at USD 4.3/bushel.
Corn Extends Losses on Macro Pressure and Neutral WASDE
Corn in Chicago plummeted last Tuesday, dragged down by the selloff across all commodities following the ceasefire in Iran. The April WASDE, published on Thursday, was not especially bearish, but with the absence of any bullish signal and favourable weather expected for this week, the selling continued. Corn in Chicago fell almost 2% week on week, while Euronext recorded larger weekly losses.
The April WASDE left US corn ending stocks unchanged for the 2025/26 crop, and it did not yet publish an estimate for 2026/27, despite the prospective planting report of the previous week coming in at 95.3 million acres, down from 98.8 million acres in 2025/26.
Source: USDA
World corn stocks were increased by 2.1 million tonnes, entirely driven by a 3.6-million-tonne increase in production, with small upward revisions across a wide range of geographies rather than concentrated in a few major producers.
Source: USDA
In Argentina, the Rosario stock exchange increased its corn production forecast to 67 million tonnes, up from 62 million tonnes previously, on higher acreage. This compares with 52 million tonnes for the old crop.
US corn planting has started and is 3% complete versus 2% last year. Summer corn harvesting in Brazil is 51.3% complete versus 59.2% last year and the five-year average of 51%. Safrinha corn planting in Brazil is 99.2% complete versus 99.1% last year and the five-year average of 98.3%.
Wheat Falls on Bearish WASDE and Rising Stocks
Wheat posted larger losses than corn, both in Chicago and Euronext, as the April WASDE was bearish for wheat.
The April WASDE increased US wheat ending stocks by 7 million bushels, almost entirely due to 5 million bushels of higher imports.
World stocks were increased by 6.2 million tonnes, driven by 2 million tonnes of higher production—mostly in the EU—and nearly 5 million tonnes of lower consumption.
Source: USDA
US winter wheat is rated 35% good or excellent, versus 48% last year. French wheat is 84% good or excellent, unchanged week on week, versus 76% last year. This marks the sixth consecutive week of unchanged conditions. Ukraine spring wheat is 59.6% planted versus 52.3% last year.
On the weather front, good planting conditions are expected this week in the US, with some dryness in southern areas.
