Insight Focus
Lower global supplies are lifting peanut prices. After a weak 2025, reduced planting in key producing countries is improving the market outlook after a prolonged period of weak prices. Brazil is benefiting from stronger export demand, with shipments up 26.5% year on year and new markets under development.
Peanut Prices Begin to Recover
After a difficult year marked by a noticeable drop in prices, the peanut market is showing the first signs of recovery. In recent months, export prices for peanuts have begun to rise gradually, according to data from Comex.
Source: Comex
In July, Brazilian peanuts were exported at an average price of USD 1,181.4/tonne, already above the levels seen in 2025, when prices fell to their lowest levels since 2019. Last year, bumper crops in major global producing countries, such as China, Argentina, and the US, increased supply and put downward pressure on prices.
Source: Comex
Currently, the expectation of lower production is driving up prices. “Major international players, such as the US and Argentina, are expected to reduce their planted area by around 20%, which should boost prices, particularly from 2027 onwards,” says Pablo Rivera, Vice President of the Brazilian Peanut Association (ABEX) and CEO of Beatrice Peanuts.
Source: FAOSTAT
“By next year, the US and Argentine crops will have been harvested – likely in smaller volumes than in the previous season, thereby reducing supply. Global stocks are also expected to decline, contributing to price appreciation,” he states.
With the decline in peanut prices, US farmers have begun to see greater potential in crops such as cotton. Cotton is experiencing a market upswing internationally due to lower global production and declining inventories. This helps explain the expected 20% reduction in US peanut planted area, according to the USDA.
Source: USDA
In Argentina, the area allocated to peanut planting was also adjusted following last year’s bumper crop. Furthermore, the province of Córdoba, Argentina’s peanut production hub, faced persistent drought conditions earlier this year during the flowering and pod-filling stages, a factor expected to impact yields.
The situation in Brazil is somewhat different. Increased production, particularly in Mato Grosso in the Centre-West region, where peanut cultivation has been expanding in recent years, has supported harvest growth. Weather conditions are also expected to be favourable this year. According to Conab, the current season is projected to yield approximately 1.28 million tonnes of peanuts, an increase of about 11% compared to the previous harvest.
Source: Conab
Export Opportunities Grow Beyond Traditional Markets
The recovery in prices is expected to have a positive impact on exports. Between January and July this year, approximately 188,850 tonnes of peanuts were shipped, according to Comex, a volume averaging 26.5% higher than that recorded during the same period in 2025.
On average, between 30% and 40% of Brazilian production is destined for the domestic market, while the remainder is exported. This balance is influenced by the peanut shelling process, as the grain loses an average of 30% of its weight when the shell is removed. Shell removal is typically a requirement in export markets, and most exports consist of shelled peanuts.
The high value-added nature of peanuts, especially compared with other agricultural commodities such as corn, helps explain the growth in exports even when prices fluctuate. In 2025, foreign sales reached 431,800 tonnes, according to Comex, an increase of approximately 338% compared with 2015. There has also been a diversification of key destination markets.
Source: Comex
In late 2022, Brazil signed phytosanitary agreements with China that paved the way for the first peanut export contracts to Chinese ports. Last year, China became the second-largest destination for Brazilian shipments, trailing only Russia.
Source: Comex
The goal is to achieve increasing diversification among purchasing countries. Kenya is already appearing on the radar. Currently, Brazil exports virtually nothing to the African nation, but that could change. “Brazil is on the verge of finalising a phytosanitary agreement with Kenya to begin peanut shipments there,” says Rivera. “The country buys the grain to produce peanut paste, which is high in protein. UNICEF distributes the food throughout the region to support vulnerable families.”
Furthermore, ABEX is set to sign an agreement with the Brazilian Trade and Investment Promotion Agency (ApexBrasil), a government body responsible for identifying international trade opportunities, to explore new markets. “There is great potential for peanuts, both abroad and domestically, due to attributes such as their high protein content and affordability. The sector is poised for expansion,” says Rivera.
