Insight Focus
Brazil’s soybean exports hit a record in April. Strong harvests and improved logistics boosted shipments, with China remaining the dominant buyer and accounting for 69% of exports. Lower domestic prices and currency movements supported competitiveness, while US exports lag and market attention focuses on potential China purchasing commitments.
Brazil Soybean Exports Hit Record High
Brazil’s soybean exports set a monthly record of 16.75 million tonnes during April 2026. Exports have been rising in tandem with the country’s record-large soybean harvest, which is now essentially complete. April exports were up from 14.5 million tonnes during the previous month and 7.1 million tonnes in February. The USDA is projecting record-large exports of 115 million tonnes for the 2025/26 marketing year, alongside Brazil’s record production estimated at 180 million tonnes.
Source: Comex
Exports to China reached a monthly record of 11.6 million tonnes in April, accounting for 69% of Brazil’s soybean exports that month. The April shipment total may have been swelled by weather and transportation delays, as well as stringent inspection procedures that held up China-bound shipments during March. The inspection problems have reportedly been cleared up following consultations between Brazilian and Chinese officials.
The EU was the second-leading destination for Brazil’s April exports (1.35 million tonnes), mainly to Spain (653,000 tonnes) and the Netherlands (407,000 tonnes). Türkyie (665,000 tonnes) was also a leading destination. Soybean exports to Iran rose to 454,000 tonnes during April, despite financial pressure from the war and uncertainty about access to Iranian ports. Exports to Thailand, Algeria, Pakistan and Mexico each exceeded 300,000 tonnes.
Brazil’s cumulative soybean exports for January-April 2026 totalled 40.2 million tonnes, up from 37.4 million tonnes during the same period last year. China accounted for 27.6 million tonnes of Brazil’s soybean exports for January-April, followed by the EU with 3.16 million tonnes and Thailand with 1.275 million tonnes.
Source: Comex
Brazil Soybean Prices Fall as Real Strengthens
With this year’s big harvest, producer prices for soybeans in Brazil are down. The average producer price in April 2026 in Brazil’s State of Mato Grosso, in local currency, was down about 6% from a year earlier. Producer prices in Minas Gerais and Parana were also down by 6% year-over-year. However, prices in March and April were marginally higher than their February lows.
Source: Conab
Despite weak domestic prices, appreciation of the Brazilian currency boosted dollar price quotes for exported soybeans. The real’s appreciation was driven by high interest rates and capital inflows tied to strong commodity exports.
Brazilian soybeans are still at a discount relative to US Gulf FOB prices, but the spread narrowed from 12% in early March to 6–7% in early May. A 4% appreciation of the Brazilian currency during April accounted for most of the increase in Brazilian prices. This followed a 5% appreciation during January–February.
Source: International Grains Council
Source: Federal Reserve
US Soybean Exports Lag Despite Demand Outlook
Monthly US soybean exports peaked in January at 5.8 million tonnes and fell to under 4 million tonnes in March. Export inspections during April totalled 3 million tonnes, slightly ahead of year-earlier volumes. However, the cumulative September-April total of 34 million tonnes for the US marketing year is about 10 million tonnes behind the total for the same period a year earlier.
US exports never recovered from the low values earlier in the marketing year when China was not buying from the US. Exports appear on track to reach the USDA’s projected 2025/26 marketing year total of 41.9 million tonnes, down from 51.2 million tonnes during 2024/25.
Note: April 2026 value is number inspected for export
Source: USDA Global Agricultural Trade System
The USDA estimates that a 5-million-tonne increase in domestic consumption of US soybeans, to 71 million tonnes during 2025/26 from 2024/25, will replace about half of the current year’s lost Chinese demand. The USDA projects only a modest increase in US soybean stocks from 8.84 million to 9.52 million tonnes.
Market participants are anticipating bullish news for soybean demand from the US–China summit scheduled for May 14–15. A sharp drop in soybean prices followed the March announcement of the summit’s postponement—an indication that many expect a Chinese commitment to buy US soybeans. No specifics have been provided regarding agricultural purchase commitments.
As the US marketing year winds down, an increase in purchases of 2025/26 beans seems unlikely. A more likely outcome is confirmation of China’s verbal commitment to buy 25 million tonnes of US soybeans annually over the next three years. These purchases would need to begin soon to avoid another disruption of the peak marketing season for the 2026/27 crop during the fall months.
