Insight Focus
Russia has seen falling wheat output, exports, and stocks in the last three years. This contrasts with the US, where all three have grown. This Russian decline coincides with its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, another key exporter.
The chart below shows the increasing size of US harvests since 2022, with 2025 projected to be a nearly 17% increase in a mere three years.
Conversely, Russia has seen a decrease of nearly 10% over the same period. This does not appear to be a one-off year, given the trends shown in the USDA numbers.
Source: USDA
US Outpaces Export Forecasts, Russia Lags
Unsurprisingly, the trends in production are reflected in export numbers over the same period. 2023/24 saw a record year of wheat exports by Russia, possibly to reassure the world’s largest importers that the supply chain was not at risk due to the war in Ukraine. The 2025/26 season has started slowly, and achieving the USDA estimate of 46 million tonnes looks increasingly optimistic.
While Russian exports struggle, the US has seen an impressive start to its 2025/26 wheat export campaign, with sales so far outperforming USDA figures by 9%, including an impressive 20% in hard red winter wheat. The 23.81 million tonne US forecast may well rise as the season progresses.
Source: USDA
US Wheat Stocks Surge, Russia Drops
China is the dominant stockholder of wheat, holding an extraordinary 124.78 million tonnes—nearly half of the world’s 260.08 million tonne total year-end stocks for 2025/26. This stockpiling strategy ensures food security for its 1.4 billion population and dwarfs the stocks of all other nations.
For the US and Russia, a clear trend is visible since 2022, as shown in the chart below. The US has seen an increase of over 50% in year-end stocks, while Russia has recorded a concerning drop of 35% over the same period.
Source: USDA
The Outlook Ahead
Assessing the potential long-term impact of these declines in Russia, in stark contrast to the upward trends being seen in the US, raises many questions.
The US
In the US, higher stocks suggest that it will remain a competitive seller for the foreseeable future. There is little to suggest a slowdown in US production is on the horizon, especially as world wheat stocks have been shrinking consistently over the last decade.
Russia
In Russia, however, there are multiple potential problems that may have played a pivotal role in the declining trends outlined above. Sanctions imposed on Russia, although designed not to disrupt global food security and thus Russia’s wheat production, may well have:
- Reduced available machinery and parts.
- Increased costs of imported farm inputs due to the devaluation of the Russian rouble since 2022.
- Complicated international funds transfers after Russia’s expulsion from the global SWIFT payments system. A “risk-off” approach by Western financial institutions has, in many cases, effectively blacklisted transfers with Russian banks.
- Constrained businesses as inflation soars and interest rates hover around 21%, making it difficult to service existing debt or obtain new, much-needed loans.
- Suffered staggering manpower losses due to the invasion of Ukraine—possibly over one million Russians killed or seriously wounded. Combined with the exodus of working-age people avoiding conscription, this has further strained agricultural labour availability.
- Endured disruptions to oil and energy infrastructure by Ukraine. The consequences for powering the farming sectors remain uncertain and are not freely acknowledged by the Kremlin.
- Faced diversification of procurement by Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer for many years, as Russian supply becomes less dependable.
Russia has achieved enormous success over the last three decades, placing itself at the forefront of the global wheat market, and for this it should be applauded.
However, the future remains highly uncertain. It is clear that Russia’s wheat sector is struggling under the strain of consequences brought on by Putin’s war against Ukraine.
This rapid decline over the past three years is yet another sad chapter for a once well-respected country. There is no obvious end in sight as Putin orders his troops to the frontlines and sanctions persist.
Truly difficult times for the world’s largest country, despite its enormous potential.
