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Insight Focus
Soybeans rally as China resumes US purchases. Corn and wheat also gained, supported by the soybean surge, though upside remains limited with production already priced in. As harvest nears completion, grains markets should stay supported with minimal downside, consolidating recent gains.
Soybeans rallied on the back of China’s commitment to start buying US beans, lifting the entire grains complex higher.
Corn in Chicago has been trading between USD 4.10 and 4.35/bushel since mid-September, with the upper end of that range reached last week. We believe the market has already priced in lower US yields compared to those published in the September WASDE report.
European corn is also facing lower yields in the East, though we also think this has been priced in already.
With reduced production already reflected in prices, further upside should be limited. However, as we near the end of the harvesting season and corn moves into storage, the market should remain well supported with zero or minimal downside risk. Expect further sideways trading, consolidating last week’s gains.
There are no changes to our estimate for Chicago corn to average USD 4.18/bushel during the 2025/26 (September/August) crop year. The average price since September 1 is running at USD 4.19/bushel.
Soybean Rally Lifts Corn Markets
Corn traded positively in Chicago last week, starting strong on Monday. Although Thursday was a down day, weekly gains reached nearly 2%, both in Chicago and on Euronext. Wheat was not immune to the rally and also posted solid weekly gains. The main driver was soybeans, which surged 6% during the week following China’s commitment to purchase US beans, pulling the whole complex higher.
Trump and Xi agreed on a one-year trade deal, and among other things, it was announced that China will buy 12 million tonnes of soybeans this year and 25 million tonnes per year over the next three years. This was announced by US representatives; in reality, China bought at least four cargoes of US soybeans during the week — its first known purchase this season.
Coming back to corn fundamentals, the MARS bulletin from the EU projected corn yields at 6.82 tonnes/ha, down from 6.88 tonnes/ha in the previous estimate and below the five-year average of 7.10 tonnes/ha, mainly due to dry weather in Eastern Europe. Bulgaria, Hungary, and Romania are expected to experience significant yield losses.
France’s yield is projected at 8.75 tonnes/ha, just 1% below the September MARS report and 2% below the five-year average. Germany’s yield is forecast at 9.69 tonnes/ha, unchanged from September and 1% above the five-year average.
With no new US government data available, a Bloomberg survey estimates corn harvesting at 73%, compared with 81% last year. In France, 59% of the corn crop is rated good or excellent, unchanged week-on-week but down from 76% last year. Harvesting there is 82% complete, compared with 36% last year and the five-year average of 74%.
Corn harvesting in Russia is 43.8% complete (vs. 55.5% last year), and in Ukraine 40% complete (vs. 76% last year). In Argentina, corn planting is 35% complete, with 96.9% rated good or excellent. In Brazil, summer corn planting is 40% complete, compared with 36.8% last year.
Wheat Gains as Planting Progresses
Wheat also rallied, with heavy gains in Chicago of just below 5%, and milder but solid gains in Euronext.
Winter wheat planting in France is 68% complete, compared with 38% last year and the five-year average of 61%. Russian wheat planting is 87.1% complete, while Ukraine’s winter wheat is 80.7% planted (vs. 92% last year). In Argentina, 8.4% of the wheat crop has been harvested.
On the weather front, the US Corn Belt is expected to experience mild temperatures and mostly dry conditions. Brazil’s Centre-South region is forecast to receive ample rainfall, while Argentina’s outlook is mixed. Northwestern Europe should start the week dry, with rains arriving midweek. The Black Sea region is expected to be cold and dry.
