Insight Focus
The Trump–Xi meeting fails to boost US soybean sales. Although China pledged to resume purchases, the rally in Chicago soybean prices erased any US cost advantage. With record Brazilian crops and large Chinese stockpiles, analysts see limited opportunity for significant US exports in the near term.
Brazil’s Bumper Harvest Limits US Opportunities
Abundant supplies from Brazil’s bumper harvest have kept soybean prices relatively low. Brazil produced 169 million tonnes of soybeans in 2025, an increase of 14.5 million tonnes from the previous year. Brazil’s CONAB forecasts another record crop of 177.67 million tonnes.
Source: Conab
Exports of the new crop are expected to begin shipping in January–February 2026 but may not arrive in China until April–May, leaving a brief window for Chinese commercial purchases of US beans for arrival in Q1 2026.
The forward structure of prices on China’s futures market implies expectations of rising prices during the January–February window as supplies of old-crop Brazilian soybeans diminish. As of November 7, the price for imported soybeans on China’s DCE was CNY 3,715 for the December 2025 contract, compared with CNY 3,758/tonne for January 2026 and CNY 3,763/tonne for February 2026.
The premium for February over December is consistent with expectations of rising prices in the coming months. The forward price structure then declines for the March–July 2026 contracts, reflecting expectations that large volumes of new-crop Brazilian soybeans arriving after the Southern Hemisphere harvest will drive down prices in the spring. The June 2026 contract price of CNY 3,691 was 7% below the February 2026 contract price.
Note: No. 2 Soybeans (non-GMO) closing prices on November 7, 2025
Source: China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange
The Chicago price peaked a week after the Trump–Xi meeting, as little concrete evidence of Chinese purchases emerged. Given the narrow window before Brazil’s harvest in early 2026 and China’s past failure to meet purchase targets set in the 2020 Phase One agreement, some US commentators doubted that China would fulfil its purchase commitments.
With abundant supplies in the market and Chinese crushers facing negative margins, further downward corrections in US prices are likely needed to entice Chinese buyers.
Non-market behaviour could prevent the market from returning to commercial supply-and-demand fundamentals. China could choose to purchase US soybeans to stockpile in state reserves as a way to meet its purchase pledge. State-owned COFCO bought three cargoes of US beans the day before the Trump–Xi meeting, apparently as a goodwill gesture.
The following week, COFCO held a signing ceremony in Shanghai for a commitment to an undisclosed amount of additional soybean purchases. It may be in China’s interest to prevent declines in soybean prices to ease downward pressure on prices for its own domestic soybeans, which are also in peak season.
China’s domestic soybeans are used predominantly in food processing, so the market is insulated from the international market to a high degree. Nevertheless, imported soybean prices do have some influence on domestic prices.
Trump–Xi Meeting Fails to Restore US Soybean Competitiveness
With US soybeans frozen out of the Chinese market by punitive tariffs, Brazil held a near monopoly on China’s soybean imports before the October 30 Trump–Xi meeting aimed at thawing US–China trade relations.
Brazil supplied over 85% of the soybeans China imported during September, and the average price per tonne had risen for four consecutive months. One article widely posted on Chinese websites said Chinese buyers had banded together during September to demand lower prices from alleged Brazilian price-gougers.
The article claimed that China pressured Argentina to suspend its export taxes on soybeans during September to give Chinese buyers leverage with Brazilian sellers.
Source: Global Trade Tracker
At the Trump–Xi meeting, China agreed to lower punitive tariffs and committed to buying US soybeans. However, the resulting rally in Chicago soybean futures prices wiped out Chinese incentives to buy US beans and pushed the cost of Brazilian beans even higher.
Chicago futures prices had been hovering just over USD 10/bushel until mid-October, when anticipation of the Trump–Xi meeting began to build. Prices approached USD 11/bushel the day after the meeting and rose to USD 11.20 in early November.
The rally in US prices made US beans uncompetitive versus Brazilian beans for Chinese buyers. Estimates of imported soybean costs for Chinese buyers showed a mid-October discount of nearly USD 40/tonne for soybeans originating from US Pacific Northwest (PNW) ports compared with Brazilian soybeans. After October 30, the costs of US and Brazilian beans were near parity. By November 4, US beans were at a premium to Brazilian beans: USD 5/tonne for US Gulf origin and USD 6/tonne for PNW origin.
Note: PNW = Pacific Northwest ports
Source: FeedTrade
Rising US Prices Curb Soybean Demand
In addition to losing their price advantage, China’s announcement of the suspension of punitive tariffs still left the tariff on US soybeans 10 percentage points higher than that on soybeans from Brazil and other countries. As evidence of the lack of US price competitiveness in early November, several commentators cited Chinese purchases of 20 cargoes of Brazilian soybeans—half for shipment in December and half for shipment in March–July.
The rise in US prices will also curb demand from buyers outside China. Robust non-China purchases of US soybeans during September were driven by price-sensitive buyers such as Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Egypt. In October 2025, USDA soybean export inspections reached nearly 4.5 million tonnes, but with zero exports to China, this was still less than half the year-earlier volume. Some of those buyers could disappear as US prices rise.
Chinese buyers were not helped by the Trump–Xi meeting, as their cost of imported soybeans continued to rise. The estimated import cost of Brazilian soybeans for arrival in China increased from USD 478/tonne to USD 500/tonne between October 15 and November 6.
The futures price for imported soybeans on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) also rose from CNY 3,602/tonne (USD 506/tonne) on October 21 to CNY 3,715/tonne (USD 522/tonne) on November 7.
The price of soybean meal in China also rose after the meeting, which China Futures Daily attributed to the rise in Chicago soybean prices. The DCE soybean meal futures price increased from CNY 2,893/tonne to CNY 3,053 between October 21 and November 7. The growth in meal prices was less than the growth in imported soybean costs.
Soybean oil prices remained weak, so profit margins for Chinese soybean processors stayed negative, as they had been for several months. Futures Daily estimated negative profit margins on December soybean shipments of CNY –327/tonne for Brazilian soybeans and CNY –200/tonne for US beans.
Record imports from Brazil had driven China’s monthly soybean crush volume to a record 9–10 million tonnes during May–August 2025. The crush rate remained around 9 million tonnes monthly during October–November, and soybean meal output was about 7 million tonnes per month.
However, the large volume of meal supplies drove down Chinese meal prices, and crushing margins were negative through the summer and fall. Yet soybean shipments from Brazil to China remained strong.
As Brazil passed the peak of its marketing season, shipments to China declined during August–October—although they were still ahead of year-earlier volumes. The cumulative 21 million tonnes of Brazilian soybeans shipped during this period will likely constitute the bulk of China’s soybean supply during Q4 2025 when those beans arrive.
Futures Daily estimated that Brazil may supply only 4 million tonnes monthly during November and December.
Source: Brazil customs data
Additionally, several million tonnes of Argentine beans are expected to arrive in China during December or January. As of early November, China had covered less than 40% of its soybean needs for December and less than 10% for January 2026.
Chinese crushers’ large stockpiles of imported beans (7.65 million tonnes, 1.5 million tonnes higher than a year earlier) and soybean meal (1.2 million tonnes, the highest in 10 years) accumulated during earlier months will bolster supplies during Q4, but analysts anticipate a potential supply gap during December 2025 and Q1 2026.
