Insight Focus
The US government has reopened after a record 43-day shutdown. The move comes amid a tentative thaw in China–US trade relations, with Beijing reportedly resuming soybean and wheat purchases and both nations delaying planned port fees. Meanwhile, Trump’s tariff policies face scrutiny in the Supreme Court, and Pfizer has announced the USD 10 billion acquisition of GLP-1 drug developer Metsera.
US Government Reopens After Record 43-Day Shutdown
The US government is set to reopen after President Donald Trump signed a short-term spending bill into law, ending the 43-day federal shutdown — the longest in the nation’s history.
The measure, approved by the House of Representatives in a 222–209 vote late Wednesday after Senate passage earlier in the week, funds federal operations through January 30 and restores pay for roughly 1.4 million employees who were furloughed or working without pay.
Federal services are expected to resume within days, easing disruptions that have affected air travel, food aid, and other essential programs since October. Staffing shortages had forced the Federal Aviation Administration to scale back air traffic, while other agencies paused key operations. President Trump said the government would “return to normal,” acknowledging that many Americans had “been hurt badly” by the shutdown.
For the agricultural sector, the reopening brings relief after weeks of halted activity. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) faced delays in processing farm support programs, export certifications, and trade inspections. The spending package includes full-year funding for the USDA and food assistance programs, ensuring continued support for farmers and low-income families.
Although many federal operations were slowed, the USDA maintained data collection efforts for its November crop production report, due out on November 14, which will update yield and production estimates for key crops including corn and soybeans.
Beijing Reportedly Commits to US Ag Purchases
Following last week’s meeting between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, the only indications of a renewed agricultural ‘deal’ have so far come from the US side. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday that China has agreed to re-engage with US agriculture, though no Chinese official or agency has confirmed or announced any such commitments.
According to Bessent, Beijing would buy 12 million tonnes of US soybeans before the end of 2025, with at least 25 million tonnes annually pledged for the next three years. Reuters has also reported that China also restored soybean import licences for CHS, Louis Dreyfus and EGT, and that state trader COFCO booked several US cargoes ahead of the meeting, seemingly as a gesture of goodwill.
The thaw reportedly extends to other grains. China is said to have purchased its first US wheat in more than a year — 120,000 tonnes of soft and spring wheat — after removing a 15% tariff on US supplies. A US sorghum cargo is also en route, the first since Beijing lifted its 10% sorghum duty, with both moves welcomed by US farm groups hoping to rebuild exports after months of trade friction. Though again, all messaging to date has come exclusively from Washington.
Source: Global Trade Tracker
But whether these commitments translate into sustained buying remains uncertain. We discussed how Brazil’s 169-million-tonne 2025 soybean crop — with another record harvest forecast for 2026 — continues to suppress prices and narrow the brief window in early 2026 when US beans may be commercially competitive. China’s Dalian futures market reflects this dynamic, pointing to only a short period of potential US viability before new-crop Brazilian supplies arrive.
Note: No. 2 Soybeans (non-GMO) closing prices on November 7, 2025
Source: China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange
At the same time, the post-meeting rally in Chicago futures erased the US price advantage, pushing US soybeans to a premium even as Chinese crushers face negative margins and elevated stocks. With US soybeans still carrying a 10-point higher tariff than South American origins, traders remain cautious. Analysts say any additional US purchases would likely be driven by state reserve stocking rather than market demand, unless prices shift decisively in the US’ favour.
Port Fees Postponed
As part of the thawing of tensions between the US and China, both countries have agreed to postpone punitive measures at ports, allowing shipping companies to breathe a sigh of relief.
The office of the US Trade Representative has announced that it will pause additional port fees until November 2026. “During the suspension, the United States will negotiate with China pursuant to Section 301 to address the acts, policies, and practices at issue in this investigation, as well as continue to partner with key allies to increase US shipbuilding capacity,” the official notice states.
In return, China has paused its countermeasures against five US subsidiaries of Korean Hanwha Ocean, as well as its retaliatory port fees on US vessels docking in Chinese ports.
The measures had thrown the shipping industry into turmoil, considering that Chinese ships make up a huge proportion of the global fleet. For these ships, the US proposed a per-tonne fee of USD 18, which would gradually rise to USD 33 by 2028.
In addition, the US wanted to impose a USD 50/tonne fee on Chinese owned or operated ships docking in US ports. In turn, China had proposed a CNY 400/tonne fee on US owned, operated or flagged ships, rising to CNY 1,120/tonne by 2028. The same would apply to US-built ships.
While the disruption has been averted for the moment, it is likely that President Trump will continue to challenge China’s shipbuilding dominance. The US has fallen far behind the Asian superpower in terms of its capabilities.
Key Asia-US shipping routes, which had been weakening in October, began to reverse course after the agreement between the presidents was made.
Source: Drewry
Trump’s Tariff Trouble
The president’s tariffs could be under fire from the GOP-heavy Supreme Court. A number of small businesses have been challenging the trade measures, which have now made their way to the country’s highest court.
Amy Coney Barrett, who was appointed to the court by Trump, expressed scepticism that European countries like Spain and France posed a threat to national defence and industry. Chief Justice John Roberts, appointed by fellow Republican George W. Bush, questioned the wide-ranging scope of the measures, concerned over the power to impose tariffs “on any product from any country in any amount, for any length of time”.
Traditionally, it has been Congress, not the president, who has the power to impose trade measures of this type.
There is now a rising widespread belief that the court will deem the measures illegal, kicking off an unwinding of the measures that could reach into the trillions of dollars.
Source: Kalshi
Pfizer Wins GLP-1 Drug Bidding War
The GLP-1 receptor agonist market continues to expand rapidly, with US pharmaceutical giant Pfizer recently completing a USD 10 billion acquisition of Metsera, a biotech firm developing experimental obesity drugs.
The recent acquisition of Metsera by Pfizer is a noteworthy development for food markets. As we have previously discussed, GLP-1 drugs have the potential to reduce appetite and curb impulsive consumption of calorie-dense foods. With key drugs like semaglutide (Ozempic/Wegovy) coming off patent in 2026, generic versions are expected to expand access in countries such as India, Brazil, China and Canada, which could accelerate this trend and have implications for sugar demand and related crop industries.
Pfizer’s move reflects the growing scale and commercialisation of GLP-1 therapies — a trend that may shift dietary patterns and reduce sugar consumption forecasts.
Mixed Demand Signals for Biofuels
As global attention turns toward COP30 in Brazil, policy momentum around biofuels is sending mixed signals. Scientists are urging world leaders to curb the expansion of crop-based fuels, warning that their environmental and social costs outweigh their climate benefits.
Yet, as calls for restraint grow louder, governments continue to push new biofuel initiatives. China’s Ministry of Commerce recently voiced support for blending domestically produced biodiesel with marine fuel oil, part of a broader move to expand the country’s green fuel use. While implementation details remain vague, the announcement shows Beijing’s ongoing interest in bio-based energy as a component of its decarbonisation strategy.
However, there has also been pushback against using biofuels in marine transport. Environmental organisations have urged the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to exclude high-emission biofuels—such as those made from soy and palm oil—from their Net-Zero Framework. The debate comes as the IMO agreed to adjourn its October 2025 session on adopting the Net-Zero Framework until 2026 to allow more time to build consensus.
Biofuels serve as an important source of demand for crops such as sugarcane and corn, and a drop in demand for the renewable fuel could have significant impacts on commodity prices, which are already struggling under the weight of bumper crops.
Source: EIA
In Other News:
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FAO Reports Lower Food Prices Amid Record Cereal Output: Global food commodity prices fell in October, with cereals, meat, dairy and sugar all declining, while vegetable oils rose slightly. At the same time, FAO forecasts 2025 world cereal production at 2.99 billion tonnes, with global stocks at a record 916.3 million tonnes, and trade up 3.2%, supported by strong wheat imports in Asia.
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Global Milk Supplies Outpace Demand: Farmers face a “bumpy ride” as global milk production outpaces demand, with inventories building and commodity prices under pressure, according to a recent report. The Global Dairy Trade index has fallen six times in a row, led by Cheddar (-6.6%) and butter (-4.3%). EU production is mixed, with growth in Ireland and Poland offset by declines in France, Germany and the Netherlands, while margin pressures are expected into 2026.
Source: Trading Economics
- Nutrien Nitrogen facility Shutdown in Trinidad: Nutrien’s Point Lisas nitrogen operations in Trinidad remain closed, potentially affecting ammonia and urea exports to the US, where Trinidad is the second-largest ammonia supplier. While North American production should cover domestic demand, prolonged disruption could tighten global supply and push prices higher, with anhydrous ammonia already up 21% year-on-year at USD 828/tonne.
- Piracy Surges in the Somali Basin: Piracy off Somalia has risen sharply since October, with hijacked dhows and motherships used to stage attacks with RPGs and automatic weapons. Multiple incidents involved the HELLAS APHRODITE, STOLT SAGALAND and SPAR APUS vessels. The uptick has prompted increased patrols and highlights ongoing risks for shipping.
