Insight Focus
Global soybean supplies remain ample despite strong crush demand. Strong US crop prospects and record South American production are keeping exportable soybean supplies abundant despite rising biodiesel-driven crush demand. Chinese buying has driven a strong start to new-crop US soybean sales, while Brazil continues to expand exports beyond China and both Brazil and the US are gaining share in the growing soybean meal trade.
Strong Crop Prospects Add to Ample Soybean Supplies
In July, the USDA estimated that the 2026/27 US soybean crop will reach 121.79 million tonnes, up 4.8 million tonnes from the previous year. This follows a record Brazilian crop of 180 million tonnes and a large Argentine crop of 50 million tonnes. Despite surging crush demand to produce soybean oil for biodiesel in the US and Brazil, supplies of exported soybeans remain ample.
The USDA’s early August crop conditions report rated the US soybean crop as 63% good or excellent, four percentage points below the previous year’s rating but still relatively strong. The report said the percentages of soybean plants blooming (88%) and setting pods (62%) were both ahead of the 2021-25 averages. Weather forecasts for the second week of August indicated rain and relief from high temperatures in parts of the US Midwest, which would be favourable for the soybean crop.
Source: USDA
As the 2025/26 market year entered its final two months, it became evident that US soybean exports would be down from the previous year. As of July 31, 2026, cumulative exports totalled 39.3 million tonnes, with a further 2.4 million tonnes in outstanding sales for 2025/26. These figures put exports on track to reach or exceed the USDA’s forecast of 41.37 million tonnes for 2025/26, although this would still be down by more than 10 million tonnes from the previous year.
China Leads Rebound in US Soybean Export Demand
In July, the USDA forecast a rebound in US soybean exports to 45.18 million tonnes in 2026/27. Sales of US soybeans for the upcoming market year have also gotten off to a better start this year. As of July 31, total outstanding sales for 2026/27 stood at 8.4 million tonnes, equivalent to nearly 19% of the USDA’s export forecast for the year. The July 31 sales total was more than double the level recorded a year earlier.
China’s return as a buyer was responsible for this year’s improved sales. Last year, China had not booked any US soybeans for the new crop year, but by July 31 this year it had booked 3.1 million tonnes. Additional sales announcements boosted the total to more than 4 million tonnes by August 7. The brisk pace of sales appears to reflect purchases by state-owned companies seeking to meet the 25 million tonne purchase commitment for 2026 made at last October’s China-US summit in Busan, South Korea.
Additionally, around 3.3 million tonnes of sales had been made to unknown destinations, many of which are believed to be additional Chinese purchases. By August 7, the total booked to unknown destinations had reached around 3.7 million tonnes. Mexico had booked 1.28 million tonnes, while Egypt and Japan had each booked more than 100,000 tonnes. Costa Rica, Indonesia, Taiwan and Algeria had each booked between 40,000 and 70,000 tonnes.
Source: USDA
In another sign of China’s intent to follow through on its purchase commitment, the country’s reserve management company began holding weekly auctions of imported soybeans from government reserves to clear storage space for new purchases of US soybeans. Around 580,000 tonnes were sold across the first two auctions, with buyers required to take delivery between October and November.
China’s soybean imports during July 2026 totalled 11.48 million tonnes, down from the June peak of 13.55 million tonnes. During the first seven months of 2026, China imported a cumulative 61.6 million tonnes, slightly ahead of the 61 million tonnes imported during the same period a year earlier. Brazil has been the main supplier of China’s soybean imports this year.
Brazil Diversifies Soybean Export Markets
Brazil’s July soybean exports totalled 12.5 million tonnes, down from the April peak of 16.2 million tonnes, according to estimates from ANEC, Brazil’s grain exporters’ association. Brazil’s cumulative exports for January-July 2026 reached 85 million tonnes, an increase of 5 million tonnes compared with the same period in 2025. China accounted for 71% of Brazil’s soybean exports through June.
Source: Brazil ANEC
Brazil’s Comex data show that soybean exports to China are running at a slightly slower pace than last year, while exports to non-China destinations have increased. Cumulative exports to China during January-July 2026 totalled 57.7 million tonnes, down 565,000 tonnes year-on-year. Exports to non-China destinations totalled 25.2 million tonnes, up nearly 6 million tonnes from a year earlier.
Among the leading destinations, exports to the EU were up 1.1 million tonnes year-on-year, exports to Turkey were up 667,000 tonnes, and exports to Bangladesh were up 685,000 tonnes. Exports to other key markets, including Thailand, Pakistan, Mexico, Iran, Vietnam and Egypt, increased by between 344,000 and 486,000 tonnes.
Source: Comex
Brazil and the US Gain Share in Soybean Meal Trade
Recent increases in soybean crush in the US and Brazil are contributing to growth in soybean meal exports.
Argentina has traditionally been the dominant soybean meal exporter, with shipments projected at around 30 million tonnes annually in both 2025/26 and 2026/27. Brazil’s soybean meal exports have increased by nearly 5 million tonnes over the past five years and are forecast to reach 25 million tonnes in 2025/26 and 26.9 million tonnes in 2026/27, nearly matching Argentina’s volume. US soybean meal exports have grown at a similar pace and are projected to reach 20 million tonnes by 2026/27.
Source: USDA
According to the Comex database, Brazil’s soybean meal exports during January-July totalled around 15 million tonnes, approximately 1.5 million tonnes ahead of last year’s pace. US soybean meal exports for January-June totalled 9.4 million tonnes, also around 1.4 million tonnes ahead of the previous year’s pace. Argentina’s exports were constrained during 2026 as farmers held onto soybeans as a store of value, while a strike briefly disrupted domestic shipping. Argentine soybean meal exports in June were up 41% year-on-year as crushers processed imported beans to fulfil contracted sales, and exports are expected to increase further in the coming months.
The EU has traditionally been the dominant importer of soybean meal, but exports are increasingly reaching destinations across Southeast Asia, the Middle East, North Africa and the Americas. The EU remains the largest foreign market for soybean meal from Brazil and Argentina, followed by Indonesia and Vietnam.
Other major markets for South American soybean meal include Thailand, Bangladesh, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran, Venezuela, Ecuador and the UK. The leading markets for US soybean meal exports include the Philippines, Mexico, Colombia, Canada and Ecuador.
