Insight Focus
Brazil’s peanut harvest is estimated at 1.1 million tonnes this year. The bumper crop is weighing on prices, leading producers to reconsider their strategy for the 2025/2026 season. Meanwhile, Brazil is broadening export opportunities through agreements with new trading partners.
Peanut farmers in Brazil are concerned about the prospect of record production and the impact on prices. This year’s bumper harvest, estimated at 1.1 million tonnes (almost 60% more than the previous season), benefiting from favourable weather and good planting conditions, has been putting pressure on prices.
Source: Conab
“The strong supply has impacted Brazilian peanut export prices, forcing producers to rethink their strategies for the 2025/2026 crop year,” says Wharlhey Nunes, an analyst at Itaú BBA’s Agro Consulting.
Between January and September of this year, prices fell by about 25%, according to Comex.
Source: Comex
The impact is already being felt in the field, especially after a year of historically high prices. In 2024, Brazilian peanuts traded at an average of USD 1,587/tonne —about 6.5% higher than in 2023 and almost 25% higher than in 2020, according to Comex.
Source: Czapp/Comex
Planted Area Takes a Leap
Last season’s favourable prices ultimately motivated producers to expand their cultivation. Peanut acreage jumped from 220,900 ha in 2023 to 255,400 ha in 2024. In the current harvest, growth is estimated at around 10%, according to Conab.
Source: Conab
Mato Grosso do Sul, a state in Brazil known for its key role in the country’s agricultural output, has been leading the expansion of acreage. With soybean prices lagging, producers in the Cerrado—Brazil’s breadbasket—have increasingly turned to peanuts as an attractive alternative.
The shift is driven not only by economic factors but also by agronomic advantages: peanuts adapt well to sandier soils, encouraging cultivation in areas considered less desirable and less suitable for other crops.
Source: Conab
Because it’s a hardy crop, peanuts also require fewer inputs, which add to their appeal. This combination—combined with the product’s appreciation in the international market—encouraged producers.
Now, however, the situation is somewhat different. With prices falling following an abundant supply, farmers are reassessing the areas allocated for cultivation. “At the very least, the growth rate is expected to be slower than that of the 2024/2025 harvest,” says Nunes.
Other market sources, such as the Brazilian Peanut Association (Abex-Br), estimate that there could be a reduction in area of up to 20%. “The goal is to rebalance supply so that prices can return to a more advantageous level,” says Pablo Rivera, vice president of Abex-Br.
In Sao Paulo, where peanuts are cultivated in rotation with sugarcane, farmers are exploring alternatives such as cassava. Although it has a longer crop cycle, cassava benefits soil health and helps with pest control. Meanwhile, in Mato Grosso do Sul, crop diversification is gaining traction, with farmers increasingly planting sesame and cowpea.
China Becomes Key Market for Brazilian Peanuts
As agricultural production expands, Brazil is constantly on the lookout for new foreign markets. An important step was taken at the end of 2022, when Brazil and China signed a phytosanitary protocol that allowed the beginning of exports to Chinese ports.
Between January and September 2025, peanut exports to China generated approximately USD 43.8 million in revenue—surpassing the total sales to the Netherlands, one of Brazil’s largest peanut buyers, across all of 2024. At this pace, China is poised to become one of the main destinations for Brazilian peanut exports.
*Jan-Aug
Source: UN Comtrade
Brazil now aims to elevate its partnership with China. Negotiations began earlier this year with the Chinese government to eliminate import tariffs on peanuts, currently set at around 12%. These discussions, expected to continue throughout 2026, remain promising.
Abex-Br highlights the fact that Brazilian peanut oil is not subject to tariffs in China. “It’s an interesting precedent that should contribute to the smooth running of negotiations,” Rivera added. China is the main destination for Brazilian peanut oil exports—last year, shipments to the country totalled approximately USD 53 million, according to Comex.
Source: Comex
The tariff dispute between the world’s two largest powers has also had a positive effect on negotiations. “Tariff elimination is feasible, especially given the trade war between China and the US, which has led the Chinese market to pay closer attention to Brazil,” says Rivera.
Source: UN Comtrade
Europe Remains Brazil’s Key Peanut Market
Europe, however, remains the main market for raw peanuts—and for a simple reason. While Chinese importers pay around USD 900/tonne, mainly for oil production, European importers offer a premium for the higher-quality product, making the continent the most lucrative market for Brazilian exporters.
Source: Comex
In Europe, peanuts are widely consumed by humans, either in the production of sweets or roasted for direct consumption. The Netherlands, one of Brazil’s major trading partners, paid around USD 1,800/tonne for Brazilian shelled peanuts in 2024, according to Comex, while prices this year have hovered around USD 1,500/tonne. Meanwhile, sales to Russia, the top destination for Brazilian peanut exports, have seen prices fluctuate around USD 1,300/tonne this year.
Source: Comex
Russia holds the leading position in foreign peanut purchases, which has raised concerns in the Brazilian market. A primary worry is that the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, now lasting more than three and a half years, could lead to new sanctions, posing significant risks to Russia’s ability to pay. There is also the potential for escalating tensions over rising sea freight costs.
Source: Comex
New Export Paths Open
Brazil has intensified its efforts to open new markets. Some negotiations are already at an advanced stage, notably the phytosanitary agreement between Brazil and Kenya. The treaty is expected to be signed in the coming months, allowing peanut exports to the African country to begin.
Kenya primarily uses peanuts to produce peanut butter, a high-protein food purchased by organisations such as the United Nations and distributed to malnourished populations across the continent.
Peanuts stored in Sao Paulo. Photo courtesy of Abex-Br.
Brazil is also exploring opportunities in other countries, such as Malaysia and Indonesia—whose economies are projected to grow more than 4% this year—for future market openings, although formal negotiations have not yet begun. “It’s interesting to open up new opportunities and boost export diversification, so we’ve been constantly exploring them,” said Rivera.
