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Insight Focus
Chicago corn has rallied on fresh China buying talks. Markets are now refocusing on the December WASDE as debates over the 186 bushels/acre corn yield continue, offering limited short-term support. Overall production remains ample, keeping upside capped, though the very delayed Ukrainian harvest may lend some support to European corn.
Despite a negative start to the week and the short trading week due to Thanksgiving in the US, fresh talks of China buying and strong export sales last Friday triggered an end-of-week rally across the entire US grains complex. Euronext corn and wheat had a negative week as the China issue is only supportive for the US.
As mentioned, it was all about China last week, but the reality is that year-to-date US soybean exports are 45% down from last year. There were fresh exports to China reported last week, with 10 cargoes bought, but that is still far from the 12 million tonnes the country committed to buy before year-end, which seems impossible to fulfil.
The focus now turns to the December WASDE and corn yields, as the market continues to debate whether the latest WASDE report of 186 bushels/acre of US corn could materialise. We may have some short-term support on the back of speculation around corn yield, but we think production is ample and higher prices are not justified.
European corn could still find some support from a very delayed Ukrainian harvest, but there should be more downside than upside risk.
There are no changes to our estimate for Chicago corn to average USD 4.18/bushel during the 2025/26 (September/August) crop. The average price since September 1 is running at USD 4.22/bushel.
Corn Surges on China Talks, Strong US Sales
The first rally for corn in Chicago occurred last Wednesday after Trump said he is urging China to fulfil the agreed purchases of soybeans before the end of the year. After a pause on Thursday, the USDA published weekly corn sales last Friday showing a huge increase of 112% year on year and 215% week on week to 2.8 million tonnes, which pushed the market higher again, posting strong weekly gains.
Harvesting of US corn is 96% completed versus 100% last year and the five-year average of 97%. Harvesting in France is now complete, while Russia remains well behind at 69.8% compared with 94.2% last year.
Corn planting in Argentina is 39.3% complete, with 82% of the crop rated good or excellent—an improvement of eight points week on week. Summer corn planting in Brazil is 59.3% complete, broadly in line with last year’s 58.7% and the five-year average of 58.7%.
Wheat Sees Mild Gains Amid Ample Supplies
US wheat also had a positive week but with much milder gains than corn due to ample supplies.
Argentina’s BAGE increased its wheat production estimate by 1.5 million tonnes to 25.5 million tonnes, which would be an all-time high.
US winter wheat is 97% planted, matching both last year and the five-year average, with conditions improving to 48% good or excellent—up three points on the week and above last year’s 45%. Ukraine’s winter wheat planting is nearly complete at 98.4%, while Russia stands at 98.4% as well, just shy of last year’s 99.6%.
In the Southern Hemisphere, Argentina’s wheat harvest is 33.9% complete, and Brazil is progressing at 86.9% harvested versus 94.4% last year and the five-year average of 87.8%.
Freezing temperatures and snow are forecast in the Corn Belt and Great Plains this week. Rains are expected in Brazil’s centre by mid-next week, and rains and warm temperatures are expected in Argentina. Northwest Europe is expected to receive rains along with cold temperatures, while the Black Sea region is expected to be cold and dry.
Corn harvest in a field covered with ground frost
